Bold claim: Hezbollah’s ongoing collapse drags Lebanon into another war.
The current state of Hezbollah’s arsenal and fighting capacity is unclear. With Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz labeling the group’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem, a “marked target for elimination,” many observers view Hezbollah’s actions as a risky, possibly suicidal mission.
The flare-up in Lebanon effectively opens a second front for Israel in the broader conflict around Iran, where Israel has been conducting frequent airstrikes against Iran alongside the United States. Neither side has publicly set a clear objective or timeline. In Lebanon, however, it seems Israel aims to permanently neutralize Hezbollah as a military threat and potentially compel Lebanon into accepting a new security arrangement. Israel’s military leadership has warned of a “devastating blow” to Hezbollah.
Israel’s expansion of ground operations into southern Lebanon has raised the specter of a wider campaign reminiscent of the 2024 conflict. Although a ceasefire brokered by the United States and France was reached, the Israeli army maintains a presence in five areas inside Lebanon, effectively creating a buffer zone near the border. Thousands more Lebanese soldiers have been deployed to the area, and some are currently retreating.
As Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, noted on the Diwan blog, Hezbollah may be trapped—precisely where Israel wants it. He argues that nothing can stop Israel’s plan to strike Hezbollah and its community hard, completing what began in 2024.
From a different perspective, the humanitarian and political landscape remains complex. Last November, I visited southern Lebanon, where communities still lie in ruins. International donors have been reluctant to fund reconstruction amid disagreements over disarmament, and some locals—perhaps even some Hezbollah supporters—are questioning what the group actually seeks to achieve. Critics have labeled Hezbollah’s moves as reckless, while others wonder about the strategic logic behind the group’s actions and what, exactly, its supporters hope to gain in the long run.
In short, the region stands at a pivotal moment: a renewed confrontation that could redraw living conditions for ordinary people and reshape regional power dynamics. The choices made now will influence not only military outcomes but perceptions of security, sovereignty, and the potential paths toward a lasting resolution.
